So I was a bit bored today and decided to use a bit of simple math and statistics to see where the Isles would end up at seasons end based on current play. The premise was that based on the record in the last 10 games I came up with a points rate per game. Easy enough Wins times two plus Overtime losses divided by ten. That gives an objective view of where the teams currently sit rather then basing it on the whole season. It is also easy to update daily to keep an eye on where teams are headed. This brings a whole new meaning to who is doing what at the given point in time. Right now this is the league by points rate, with the Isles bolded to show just how good they've been playing.
1.6 PPG - Vancouver
1.5 PPG - Detroit, Nashville, Anaheim, NJ, and Pittsburgh
1.4 PPG - NYI, Carolina, and St. Louis
1.3 PPG - NYR, Toronto, and Tampa
1.2 PPG - LA, and Calgary
1.1 PPG - San Jose, Phoenix, Edmonton, Boston, Phillie, and Montreal
1.0 PPG - Washington
0.9 PPG - Colorado, Florida, Winnipeg, and Buffalo
0.8 PPG - Chicago, and Minnesota
0.7 PPG - Dallas, and Columbus
0.5 PPG - Ottawa
So the trend right now is that the Isles are among the top 10 teams for good play. Continuing with this number was easy to take the current games left to play and multiply it by the points rate. Doing so gave me a base number of point they can earn over the last set of games. Adding that number to the current point brings a new look at what the playoffs would be like if teams continue trends. Right now the Isles would be in! The next set is columned as follows. The left is the current rank, followed by the Projected Rank, then Team, then projected points.
WEST
| Curr Place | Pro Place | TEAM | Pro. Points |
| 2 | 1 | VAN | 117.4 |
| 1 | 2 | DET | 114 |
| 3 | 3 | SJ | 99.2 |
| 4 | 4 | NAS | 111 |
| 5 | 5 | STL | 111 |
| 7 | 6 | LA | 95.6 |
| 13 | 7 | ANA | 93 |
| 12 | 8 | CAL | 89.8 |
| 9 | 9 | PHO | 88.8 |
| 6 | 10 | CHI | 87.4 |
| 10 | 11 | COL | 81.3 |
| 8 | 12 | MIN | 81.2 |
| 14 | 13 | EDM | 78.9 |
| 11 | 14 | DAL | 77 |
| 15 | 15 | CBS | 56.3 |
EAST
| Curr Place | Pro Place | TEAM | Pro Points |
| 1 | 1 | NYR | 111.3 |
| 5 | 2 | NJ | 108.5 |
| 12 | 3 | TAM | 90 |
| 6 | 4 | PITT | 107 |
| 2 | 5 | BOS | 102.1 |
| 7 | 6 | TOR | 98.4 |
| 4 | 7 | PHI | 97.9 |
| 11 | 8 | NYI | 94 |
| 3 | 9 | WAS | 89 |
| 15 | 10 | CAR | 88.2 |
| 9 | 11 | FLO | 86 |
| 13 | 12 | MTL | 81.8 |
| 10 | 13 | WIN | 80.3 |
| 14 | 14 | BUF | 77 |
| 8 | 15 | OTT | 74 |
So that is where we are at! It is nice to see that the Isles would even have as large a cushion as 5 points! Of course some of this is subject to change, and probably will. I feel like Ottawa won't skid themselves into last place, I think Detroit will still manage a Presidents trophy, and I think Washington or Florida will rebound enough to stay in ahead of Tampa. The good news is that I can easily come back everyday and update the L10 stats and keep myself up to date on what is shaping up to be an Islanders Playoff run! So excited for the last quarter of the season now as the Isles really are staring a legitimate shot in the face. Plus if it works out that way we can finally reignite a talent gap deprived rivalry with the Rangers. Playoff series against the Rangers? Despite their excellent play no fan of either team would turn down an opportunity to see that playoff match up. The other part of this projection is that it pits THE ENTIRE Islanders division in the playoffs. How crazy is that?
Some side notes to this, I left the decimals in the projected because it is projected. If a team has an amount of games left that doesn't include an even 10 (30, 20, 10) it is suited to show the chance of points in a decimal. So a .8 after the points would signify a good chance they will gain that extra point, but because they have 29 instead of 30 games it could swing the other way. I like it as it is personally, but that is because I made it haha.
So yeh there is my long awaited (By me) update to the blog that is super nerdy and awesome at the same time. I definitely see myself keeping this spread sheet in the future to use for full seasons to watch how team trends change. I also plan on using it for other sports as well as keeping todays numbers to see how accurate it ends up being at seasons end. I will probably save 3 sets (every 10 games or so) and give a baseline for accuracy for future use. If I have a good accuracy baseline I can do other fun things like adding error into the projected points.
Looks like I found a new hobby haha. Also for anyone who may like the results from other sports it is a fairly easy sheet to set up in Excel and for sports that don't do points it is easy to just switch it to a win rate and project what kind of record they should end up with.
Cheers
-Minos
Pron - Not safe for work, this version of the classic movie shows a whole nuther side of the master computer...
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